Beeile dich mal etwas, die machen naemlich richtig Dampf!Phommel hat geschrieben:So, bis später.
Ich muss nun noch zur Bäckerei.
Thaksin amnesty gathers steam
Beeile dich mal etwas, die machen naemlich richtig Dampf!Phommel hat geschrieben:So, bis später.
Ich muss nun noch zur Bäckerei.
ja, in Uttaradit 6 Tote wegen Hochwasser, der Katastrophenhilfe-Chef im Ausland, Yingluck auf dem Weg nach Kambodscha und der Rest bildet nun eineplaaloma hat geschrieben: Beeile dich mal etwas, die machen naemlich richtig Dampf!
Thaksin amnesty gathers steam
Wenn tatsaechlich ein Antrag gestellt wuerde, muessen erst in einem neuem Verfahren die neuen Beweise geprueft werde, erst danach kaeme eine neue Verhandlung in Frage. >2011
egal was die PT macht, es gibt Ärger - wenn Thaksin wieder zurückkommt.plaaloma hat geschrieben:
Wenn tatsaechlich ein Antrag gestellt wuerde, muessen erst in einem neuem Verfahren die neuen Beweise geprueft werde, erst danach kaeme eine neue Verhandlung in Frage. >2011
Leider erscheint der excellennte Voranai V. nicht mehr Live im Bangkok Post Morning FocusPieces all lined up, The chess game begins
Published: 11/09/2011 at 12:00 AM
Newspaper section: News
That his families, friends and retainers will take over government bureaucracies and state enterprises is a foregone conclusion. That his voting base will be kept happy over the next four years might require a balancing act, but it's far from mission impossible.
Even if flood relief proves inadequate, corruption becomes rampant and the economy doesn't improve, in four years it will still be a choice between Thaksin Shinawatra and Abhisit Vejjajiva. Need I say more? The key is keeping the red shirts happy.
Their leaders are now members of parliament. Their lieutenants have been made secretaries and advisers to ministers. (Terrorism charges notwithstanding in both cases.) Their supporters will be handsomely compensated by taxpayers sooner or later.
Two important challenges remain before the red carpet can be rolled out for the triumphant return of the de facto prime minister of Thailand _ securing an amnesty/royal pardon, and having a friendly army chief in place.
Justice Minister Pracha Promnok has formed a committee to handle a petition for a royal pardon for Thaksin.
In politics, when a panel is formed, that means the issue is dead, or at least that it's on the back burner. Think Truth for Reconciliation Committee _ as soon as it was formed by former prime minister Abhisit, those in the know immediately grinned and said ''yup, this one ain't going nowhere''.
It was Deputy Prime Minister Chalerm Yubamrung who spent the entire last week clamouring for an appeal for a royal pardon for Thaksin. In fact, Mr Chalerm has been the most vocal member of the ''free Thaksin'' campaign since before the elections.
But the reactions of the public and key powerful figures have given the campaign pause. Many even took to the streets in protest. So Mr Pracha did what any politician worth his salt would do, assigned a committee and let the issue rest, for now.
On Friday, however, Mr Chalerm was at it again, making headlines saying that Pheu Thai will continue to press ahead to absolve Thaksin of guilt and bring him home.
But look at the Bangkok Post's Friday issue. There's an article saying Pheu Thai's strategic team is none too happy with Mr Chalerm's song and dance.
There you go.
The ruling party has created a safety net, deniability. If there's to be a backlash against this ''free Thaksin'' crusade, then fingers can point to that bombastic Mr Chalerm, that troublemaker, that maverick. Pheu Thai is not to blame or to be vilified for this.
Ask Prime Minister Yingluck Shinawatra about it and her answer will always be, ''I will study into it, na ka'' _ which is the same as ''I will appoint a committee to look into it.''
Does this mean the party is hanging Mr Chalerm out to dry? No, it's a game of strategy.
The deputy prime minister relishes his role. He's the maverick; the motor mouth; the ''Hammer of Thaksin''.
Every leader worth his salt has got to have a hammer.
The game is probing for weaknesses and finding points of attack. Thaksin will continue to have his Hammer probe the issue until a soft spot is found.
On a side note, legal experts say there is little chance of Thaksin getting a fresh judicial review of his 2008 conviction for abuse of power. But this power expert says that when you have the power, you can get away with just about anything, legality is of no concern. Just look at the 2006 coup for example.
This is a two-pronged attack against the establishment. On one front is the seeking of a royal pardon, on the other is the replacement of army chief General Prayuth Chan-ocha with a ''friendly'' face. Before moving on, let's look at the overall tactics in this complicated, unhurried game of political chess.
The public might think Thaksin reckless at times. But perhaps it's merely a strategy of probing and attacking. This is done by throwing out risky and controversial moves, one after another, to see how far he can push, when to step back and what he can get away with, until its time for checkmate.
For example, wedding bliss _ his daughter's wedding will be in November. To create headlines and stir things up a bit, just before the July 3 general elections Thaksin announced he would return to Thailand to attend the wedding. Too much backlash, too many outcries. No problem. Back away. Time is on his side.
Another example, a bit of travel _ his sister is the prime minister and his cousin is the foreign minister, so why not see if he can get away with going to Japan. Too much backlash, too many outcries, but Thaksin still went to Japan, to prove a point. However, had he went through with a rumoured trip to Cambodia that would have been pushing things too far.
This is a game of strategies. The latest push was the removal of police chief Wichean Potephosree. It was a week-long drama involving MP Chuvit Kamolvisit, the Hammer, illegal casinos and a score of police officers who are now inactive, but will return to their jobs soon. The climax came when Pol Gen Wichean made a bold counterattack by visiting Privy Council President Gen Prem Tinsulanonda. He left empty. There is an important gesture, or non-gesture in this.
The upshot is that Thaksin's brother-in-law, Pol Gen Priewpan Damapong is expected to soon take over as police chief. The stage is set. Now, it's time to prepare for the big push into the heartland, the realm of the green generals. But this won't be easy, nor will it happen in a hurry. Definitely, it won't be done this year.
On Thursday, Ms Yingluck instructed senior military officers from the three branches to prepare for ''changes'' and ''risks'', in the context of the coming Asean Economic Community in 2015. Perhaps there's more than one ''context''.
This round of military reshuffle will see ''friendly'' generals in important political offices, setting the scene.
That there are generals all the way down to privates sympathetic to Thaksin's cause is no secret. The de facto prime minister himself is a graduate of the Armed Forces Preparatory School, Class 10.
His opponent is, however, forming a defensive ring. Chief of Staff Gen Dapong Ratanasuwan is to be promoted to deputy army chief, at the insistence of Gen Prayuth. This would put Gen Dapong in line to be the next army chief.
Both Gen Dapong and Gen Prayuth were instrumental in putting down the red shirts in April and May of last year. They both are ''loyal'' soldiers.
But there are 12 months separating this September and next September. Twelve months is a long time.
Anything can happen. Play it carefully. No hurry on this one. Learn the lesson from 2006.
It might take a year. It might take two. But it will be done. Thaksin has four years to get it done.
The PAD yellow shirts are dwindling. Sondhi Limthongkul and Chamlong Srimuang are near powerless. Abhisit Vejjajiva and Suthep Thaugsuban are sidelined. The Privy Council president seemed contented just to accept Pol Gen Wichean's belated birthday wish. He is 91 years old. Thaksin is 62 years old. That's just one example of how time plays an important role in deciding the fate of the country.
Dear readers, you may think of other examples on your own.
Through the past five years, the establishment has tried everything, from the coup to the courts to the crackdown. The outcome of the July 3 elections is testament to their failures. What else is there to do?
Even the most die-hard fans of the Democrats do not want another round of bloodshed and bombs in the streets. It's bad for business, bad for everyone. So by this time next year, there might be a ''friendly'' new army chief. Justice Minister Pracha's panel may very well find the perfect formula and timing for a royal pardon for Thaksin. Checkmate.
Roll out the red carpet.
But then again, when it comes to political outcomes, logic and reason tend to fly out the window. In a world of endless possibilities, we will just have to wait and see.
Meanwhile, enjoy watching the HBO series Game of Thrones, currently showing in Thailand.
I for one am excited.
Contact Voranai Vanijaka via email at voranaiv@bangkokpost.co.th
diese Antwort dürfte man nun vermutlich bei allen wichtigen Fragen von ihr erhalten.'I will study into it, na ka
bis November wird es etwas knapp. Kann auch gut möglich sein, das die Army nun eine Endlösung anstrebt, wie bei Saeh Daeng.Wurde die Hochzeit verschoben?
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